I constructed a easy mannequin to mission DAU for Meta’s new Threads app. Like all fashions, it’s a work of fiction and the projections contained inside are nearly actually false. However I feel it’s useful as a device for contemplating how Threads may develop, and at what charge.
The assumptions I’ve used put Threads’ common world DAU (ex-EU) for this quarter at simply over 93MM DAU, rising to roughly 175MM by Q2 2024. All assumptions and references are defined within the “Notes” tab.
The preliminary model of the mannequin used 2BN as an estimate for Instagram’s present MAU. I revised that model as a result of I wasn’t proud of utilizing such a dated metric — it was revealed in December 2021. I curve-fitted Instagram’s historic MAU milestones going again to September 2015 to derive a present MAU estimate (in July 2023) of practically 2.6BN.
